What is the natural light factor keo. Natural light factor

The net population reproduction rate (R 0) shows that the size of a stable population corresponding to the real one with given general fertility and mortality rates, which are assumed unchanged, changes (i.e. increases or decreases) in R0 once in a while T, those. for the length of a generation. Taking this into account and accepting the hypothesis of exponential population growth (decrease), we can obtain the following relationships linking the net coefficient and generation length:

L 0 = e gT, => T =^ and => /? = ^ (9.5)

In the stable population theory G in these expressions is called true rate of natural population growth(or L. Lotka coefficient). This coefficient is the root of the so-called integral equation of population reproduction, or Lotka equations, named after its author, American mathematician, biologist and demographer Alfred James Lotka (Lotka, Alfred James, 1880-1949). It is widely used in mathematical applications of demography, in particular in the theory of stable populations. However, we do not consider this equation here, since this topic is beyond the scope of our textbook. Those interested can refer to the Demography Course.

Lotka Alfred James (1880-1949), American biologist and demographer. [...] President of the American Population Association (1938-39), American Statistical Association (1942)... In 1907 he showed that a population growing at a constant rate and maintaining a constant order of extinction tends to a certain age composition and constant coefficients fertility and mortality. ...For the first time he proposed a mathematical expression for the own coefficient of natural increase of a closed population with a constant order of extinction and childbirth, the algebraic expression of which was given in the work “On the true coefficient of natural increase of the population” (1925), showing the connection of this coefficient with the net reproduction rate of the population.. Lotka studied the process of generational change and gave a modern analytical expression for the length of a generation...

Population: Encyclopedic Dictionary. M., 1994. P. 210.

Formula 9.5, proposed by the American demographer E. Cole, already familiar to you from the chapter on fertility, in his article “Calculation of approximate true rates”, can be used to estimate the true rate of natural population growth, taking into account that the length of a generation is the average age of the mother at the birth of daughters, living to at least the age their mothers were at the time of their birth. In modern conditions, the length of a generation does not differ too noticeably from the average age of a mother at the birth of a child. Therefore, estimating the last parameter in any way allows us to approximately establish both the sign and magnitude of the true coefficient of natural increase.

If we now use E. Cole’s formula and divide the natural logarithm of the net reproduction rate (1p0.5908 « -0.526 19) by the just calculated length of the female generation (25.9 years), we will obtain the true coefficient of natural population growth in Russia for the conditions of 2001 This value is equal to -0.020 33, or ~ -2.0%.

The real value of the coefficient of natural population growth in Russia in 2001 was equal to -0.65%, or more than 3 times less in absolute value. This difference is due to the relatively high proportion of women of reproductive age in the Russian population, which, in turn, is associated with a slight increase in the birth rate in the first half of the 1980s. and with the influence of previous demographic waves. The real age structure of our country is younger than the age structure of a stable population corresponding to modern parameters of fertility and mortality. Thanks to this, the population has accumulated some growth potential, or, more precisely, the potential for slowing population decline, due to which the Russian population is not declining as quickly as it would otherwise be. However, this growth potential is quickly exhausted, and we must expect that after a short period of time the natural decline in the country's population will increase noticeably. Generations born during the period of fertility decline that began in the second half of the 1980s are entering reproductive age. and continues to this day. And then the potential for demographic “growth” will be exhausted, and the natural decline in the country’s population, if no measures are taken, will be even faster (4-5 times faster than now). And no replacement migration, which some demographers hope will not save the country from the horrors of depopulation.

Although, strictly speaking, the net reproduction rate is a measure of the replacement of the mother's generation by the generation of daughters, it is usually interpreted as a characteristic of the replacement of generations in the entire population (not only the female population). In this case, the nature of generation replacement (population reproduction) is assessed in accordance with the following rule:

The clarification “after a time equal to the length of a generation” is very significant. If I 0 1, this does not mean that in the year for which the net reproduction rate is calculated, there is a reduction in population, absolute numbers of births and total fertility rate. The population can grow for quite a long time, despite the fact that the net coefficient is less than or equal to 1. This has been the case, for example, in Russia since the late 1960s. until 1992. The value of the net coefficient in the country all these years was less than 1; accordingly, the true coefficient of natural increase was negative, and the population increased due to the potential for demographic growth accumulated in a relatively young age structure. Only when this potential was exhausted (and this happened precisely in 1992), the birth rate became less than the death rate, and the population began to decline in numbers.

We can say that depopulation in Russia has gone from hidden and latent to obvious and open. And this was completely independent of the specific political and socio-economic situation of the 1990s, no matter what the so-called “nationally concerned scientists” and self-proclaimed “patriots” of any color, from the ultra-left to the ultra-right, said. The beginning of depopulation in Russia was predetermined by the processes that occurred in the population throughout the 20th century, especially in the post-war period, when there was a sharp drop in the need for children, which caused a rapid and deep drop in the birth rate. This, in fact, happens in all developed countries. About a third of the world's countries have a birth rate that is less than what is necessary for simple population reproduction. In other words, in these countries, as in Russia, there is hidden or obvious depopulation. And most of these countries are those in which the standard of living of the population is much higher than in our country.

In the previous paragraph it was said about the level of fertility necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population. In this regard, the question arises of how to determine this level of fertility? To answer it, different methods are used.

One of them was proposed by V.N. Arkhangelsk. The method is based on a simple comparison of the current crude birth rate with its conditional value equal to the crude mortality rate. The ratio of the second to the first (in fact, this is the inverse value of the vitality index, which was discussed at the beginning of the chapter) shows how many times greater the value of the total fertility rate must be in order to guarantee zero natural population growth at a given mortality level and the current age structure :

M.R. xTFR (9.6)

Where TFR h, TFR a, CMR, CBR- respectively, hypothetical (necessary to ensure simple reproduction, the total fertility rate, the current total birth rate, the total mortality rate and the total fertility rate.

Gross and net coefficients make it possible to do otherwise, but it is also quite simple to answer this question. To do this, use either the ratio of the net coefficient to the gross coefficient, or the inverse ratio.

The first relation, i.e. ratio of net coefficient to

gross coefficient (-), shows what the level of potential population reproduction is, or in other words, how many women in each next generation replace women of the previous generation per one girl born. The reverse relationship, i.e. ratio of gross factor to

net coefficient (-), shows how many girls are needed

give birth to a woman of a conditional generation, so that simple reproduction of the population is guaranteed. It is usually denoted by the Greek letter p:

From here it is easy to obtain the value of the total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population. To do this, you simply need to divide this expression by the proportion of girls among newborns, i.e. for secondary sex ratio:

In particular, in 2001, the value of the total fertility rate necessary for simple population reproduction was equal to:

TFR, = P=-^L = -" Y Y ARq

• 0,6095
• 0.488x0.588

Magnitude

in this expression there is nothing more than a partial

from dividing the total fertility rate by

I am 0. Therefore, knowing both of these quantities (and they are regularly published in Demographic yearbooks of Russia), you can easily calculate the values ​​of the hypothetical total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction:

• 1,249
• 0,588
• 2,12.

The value of the total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction can also be determined by simply calculating the inverse of the product of the proportion of girls among those born alive and the probability of a daughter surviving to the average age of the mother at the time of her birth, i.e. by the number of survivors /, which is completely equivalent to expression (9.8):

TRSH = -, (9.9)

Where 1 x- the number of people living to age x years from the female mortality table. For example, in 2001, the value of / 25 was equal to 0.972 20. Then the value of the total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction will be equal to:

• 7t =-!-*2.11.
• 0.488x0.972 20

That is, practically the same value as when calculated using formula (9.8).

Calculation using the method of V.N. Arkhangelsky gives the value of the total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction, approximately equal to 2.14. Apparently, this difference is reflected in the fact that the method associated with the use of gross and net coefficients gives the ratio of fertility and mortality in its pure form, and in the method of V.N. Arkhangelsky also takes into account the role of the age structure.

It is interesting to compare the dynamics of the hypothetical total fertility rate (TRYAF for 10 years from 1992 to 2001, calculated by these two methods.

In 1992, the total fertility rate in Russia was 10.7 %O, the overall mortality rate is 12.2% and the total

The birth rate is 1.552 births per 1 woman of reproductive age.

Consequently, the value of the hypothetical total fertility rate (RUB and), calculated using the method of V.N. Arkhangelsky, in 1992 was equal to:

= SSH_ xT=1^x1.552 * 1.77.

/? SVYA 10,7

In other words, over the decade this value increased by 0.37 (2.14-1.77).

Calculation by an alternative method gives for 1992 the value 77*7^, equal to:

• 0,7574
• 0.488x0.7350

In other words, this value has remained virtually unchanged over the decade. As we can see, the dynamics of the hypothetical total fertility rate, calculated by various methods, turned out to be different. This difference is the result of the opposite dynamics of fertility and mortality over the specified period. Some rejuvenation of the age structure of the reproductive contingent, associated with the entry into reproductive age of the generations born in the early and mid-1980s, may also have played a role.

The main role in the dynamics of the hypothetical total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population was undoubtedly played by the sharp decline in fertility that began after 1987. The continuation of this extremely negative process will constantly increase the level of the total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population.

This is, for example, indicated by the calculations of V.N. Arkhangelsky. He showed that with any options for forecasting the population of Russia, this value will grow rapidly. Assuming the current regime of population reproduction in Russia remains unchanged and there is no migration, the hypothetical total fertility rate required to ensure simple population reproduction will increase to 4.8 births per woman of reproductive age by the middle of this century. And according to the most pessimistic version of the forecast V.N. Arkhangelsky, to ensure even simple reproduction of the population, a total fertility rate will be required equal to almost 6 births per 1 woman of reproductive age. Even in the most favorable prognosis, V.N. Arkhangelsky, which he associates with the implementation of an active demographic policy aimed at increasing the birth rate, the value of the hypothetical total fertility rate necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population will be equal to 3.7 births per 1 woman of reproductive age.

In the domestic literature, the ratio of the gross population reproduction rate to its net coefficient (p) is sometimes called at the cost of simple reproduction. It is believed that its value characterizes a certain “economy” of population reproduction, or the ratio of the so-called demographic "costs" And "results".“Costs” are accordingly measured by a gross coefficient, and “results” by a net coefficient. Moreover, the lower the p value and the closer it is to 1, the more “economical” is population reproduction. The application of supposedly “economic” terminology to population reproduction seems somewhat strange (it is not clear what to do with ethics). In addition, it seems that the name of this indicator (“price of simple reproduction”), and its interpretations in the mouths of many of our demographers are needed only to prove to ourselves and our readers that the situation with reproduction in Russia is far from one that could cause alarm. What, exactly, to worry about if the value of p in the country is almost the same as in advanced Western countries. We, so to speak, if not ahead of the rest, then at least in the forefront progressive humanity.

To be involved in progress is, of course, impressive. But the question arises: is this progress? Can an inexorable and rapid fall into the abyss of depopulation be called progress? Unfortunately, many demographers either ignore these damned questions, or are at best conciliatory about the negative demographic dynamics in the country, and at worst, even considering current demographic trends (especially the situation with the birth rate) as something completely normal.

Meanwhile, Russia's demographic prospects are very sad. This is evidenced by the results of all population dynamics forecasts made by both domestic and foreign experts. The next chapter of the textbook is dedicated to the issues of demographic forecasting, its scientific foundations, the methodology of prospective calculation, as well as the results of forecasting.

Demographic revolution. M., 1976. S. 216-217; Population: Encyclopedic Dictionary. M., 1994. P. 60-61. Illumination

, created by daylight natural light, varies within extremely wide limits. These changes are determined by the time of day, season and meteorological factors (cloudiness, precipitation). The amount of illumination during the daytime can change tens of times in a short period. Therefore, the natural lighting of premises cannot be characterized, and therefore, normalized by the absolute value of illumination, as is customary for artificial lighting installations. For determining It is customary to use a relative value showing how many times the illumination inside the room (Evn) is less than the illumination outside the building (E nar), where the illumination outside the building refers to the illumination of the horizontal plane created by the diffused light of the sky when screening direct sunlight. This relative value, usually expressed as a percentage, is called the coefficient of natural illumination (k.f.o.): e%=(Evn*100)/Enar.

The value does not depend on the time of day and other factors affecting the change in illumination created by natural light, which makes it possible to accept it as a standardized characteristic for natural light.

The standards accept separate rationing of natural light rooms for top and side light. In rooms illuminated only by side light, the minimum value of the natural illumination coefficient emin is standardized at points farthest from the windows. In rooms illuminated by overhead or combined light, the average value of the natural illumination coefficient еср is normalized. This is explained by the fact that with side light there is a large unevenness of illumination and the average value of the natural illumination coefficient cannot characterize the conditions of natural lighting in the premises. With overhead and combined light, if the uniformity of illumination is sufficient, the ecr values ​​fully characterize the lighting conditions.

Measurement daylight factor is carried out by simultaneous measurement of illumination values ​​indoors and outside the building, since, depending on cloudy conditions, the amount of daytime natural illumination can change several times in a few seconds. Therefore, measuring illumination from daylight natural light only indoors without simultaneously measuring illumination outside the building does not make sense. Measurements of illumination outside the building must be carried out while shielding the photocell from direct rays of the sun.
Let us give an example of determining the coefficient of natural illumination based on measurement data.

So, with simultaneous measuring illuminance values It turned out that the illumination inside the room is 450 1x, and outside the building - 15,000 1x. The coefficient of natural light in this case is equal to: e 450*100/15000=3%.

This example shows, how important it is to use daylight natural light. With the help of artificial lighting, it is, as a rule, impossible to create such high illumination values ​​that occur with natural light. Indeed, even with a natural illumination coefficient of 3%, which corresponds to work of average precision, with relatively low illumination outside the building, the illumination in the room is 450 1x, i.e. it almost reaches the level of artificial lighting standards for the most precise work when using incandescent lamps.

In some cases when exposed to direct sunlight indoor conditions for visual work worsen due to the presence of direct and reflected glare. Measures to combat insolation include whitewashing the glazing of light openings, using light curtains, installing canopies over the windows, etc.

Natural population movement- change in population due to births and deaths. Widely used in statistics rate of natural population growth, which is defined as the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths over a certain period, meaning primarily a positive result (the number of births must exceed the number of deaths). If the difference has a negative result, then we are talking about an indicator of natural population decline.

Population reproduction is measured using the crude birth rate and crude mortality rate (calculated per 1000 people, i.e. in ppm, ‰).

Total fertility rate characterizes the intensity of childbearing in relation to the population as a whole (all ages) and is calculated as the ratio of the number of live births during the year (N) to the average annual population ():

The mortality rate of the population is measured overall mortality rate, which is the ratio of the total number of deaths during the year (M) to the average annual population:

Also used in population statistics natural increase (loss), which is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate.

Of great importance for the analysis of natural population movements is the calculation age-specific fertility rates(coefficients for individual age groups of women) and C total fertility rate, which characterizes the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime. In recent years in Russia, the total fertility rate has been trending downward (the total fertility rate decreased from 2.00 in 1970 to 1.24 in 1998

The most important part of statistical information on population mortality is the mortality rate of children in the first year of life. This is about infant mortality rate, which is the ratio of the number of deaths under one year of age (M0) to the number of live births:

The general indicator is average life expectancy indicator, which can be calculated for any age group of the population by dividing the sum of the upcoming person-years that a group of people will live from age x to the age limit inclusive (T x), by the number of the studied generation that has survived to age x (L x):

In addition to natural movement, the population movement across the country (population migration) has a great influence on the country’s population. Changes in the population size in certain territories due to migration represent mechanical movement of population.

Population migration- this is the movement of people (migrants) across the borders of certain territories (country, region, region, district, etc.), associated with a change of place of residence permanently or for a more or less long time. The main migration indicators include the following:

§ number of arrivals - P;

§ number of departures - B;

§ migration increase - (P - B), if P > B;

§ migration outflow - (P - V), if P< В.

Retired is considered to be a person who has left the territory. TO arrived include persons who entered the given territory from outside its borders. The number of departures and arrivals is determined by registration indicators at the place of arrival and place of departure.

To statistically characterize migration processes, calculated relative indicators are used: intensity coefficients (arrivals, departures, migration turnover), migration efficiency coefficient.

Birth rate indicators

The birth rate is the most important medical and social criterion for the viability and reproduction of the population. Fertility is determined not only by biological, but also by socio-economic processes, living conditions, everyday life, women’s employment in production, traditions, religious attitudes and other factors. To characterize the intensity of the birth process, both the general fertility rate and fertility indicators, age-specific fertility rates, “gross” and “net” population reproduction rates are used.

For an approximate characteristics of the birth rate, the total fertility rate is used, that is, calculated for the entire population.

Total coefficient = number of live births

fertility in a given year x 1000 average annual population

Estimation of the fertility rate according to the WHO scale, according to which several levels of fertility are distinguished, gives an idea of ​​the intensity of the population reproduction process:

· high – more than 25 per 1000 population;

· average – 15-25 per 1000 population;

· low – up to 15 per 1000 population.

Fertility rate(fertility), which is a special indicator of fertility, is calculated for women of fertile (childbearing) age.

Fertility rate = number of live births

(fertility) in a given year x 1000 average number of women aged 15-49 years

When calculating marital and extramarital fertility rates, the fact is taken into account, respectively, whether women of reproductive age are married or not.

Marital fertility rate = number of live births

(fertility) in a given year x 1000 average number of married women aged 15-49

Extramarital fertility rate = number of live births

(fertility) in a given year x 1000 average number of unmarried women aged 15-49 years

Gross indicator- this is the total fertility rate, showing how many children, on average, one woman would give birth to throughout her entire life if the existing level of fertility were maintained at each age.

The gross indicator is assessed in accordance with the following scale:

§ less than 2.18 – reduced reproduction;

§ more than 2.18 – expanded reproduction;

§ equals 2.18 – simple reproduction.

Net coefficient Reproduction of the female population shows how many girls born to one woman throughout her life, on average, would survive to their mother's age from the moment of their birth, provided that the fertility and mortality levels of a given period were maintained at each age.

The net indicator is assessed in accordance with the following scale:

§ less than 1 – reduced reproduction;

§ more than 1 – expanded reproduction;

§ equals 1 – simple reproduction.

Fertility and fertility

Fertility is a mass process of childbirth in a generation or a set of generations.

Fertility– biological ability men, women, married couples to conceive and give birth to a certain number of children. Fertility as the ability to give birth should be distinguished from actual childbearing, which is characterized by the number of children born.

Fertility, in this case, can be defined as actual realization of fertility, depending on a number of factors.

The average fertility of a person as a biological species is 10-12 live births over a lifetime, i.e. 12-15 pregnancies. In fact, the final marital birth rate does not exceed 8 live births in a lifetime.

Fertility occurs very early: in women at 12-13 years, in men - at 14-15 years. And the age of achieving economic maturity, necessary to start one’s own family, is being pushed back as the duration of school and vocational education increases. Such a gap in the timing of puberty and social maturation creates many problems: premature birth, teenage pregnancy, contraception issues, etc.

The age of decline of fertility is postponed as living conditions and health of the population improve: for women to 50-55 years, for men - to 55-60 years.

The concept of fertility is associated with a number of other concepts that reveal certain aspects of it. This set includes the concepts of childlessness, infertility, infertility and sterility.

Infertility- this is the inability of a mature body of a man or woman to reproduce offspring. A marriage is considered infertile if, within three years of regular sexual activity and provided that contraception and induced abortions are not used, there is no birth of a live child, either due to lack of conception, or due to spontaneous miscarriage, or the birth of a stillborn child.

Infertility is caused by:

• Spontaneous sterility;
• Spontaneous (involuntary) miscarriage;
• Stillbirth.

In modern economically developed countries, about 10-15% of married couples are absolutely infertile (i.e., have no chance of having a child) and the same number are relatively infertile (i.e., have reduced fertility).

Sterility is the inability to conceive. In this case, sterility is distinguished constant(at older ages, after reaching menopause), sterility in reproductive period(as a consequence of illness or sterilization surgery), temporary(during pregnancy, postpartum or post-abortion amenorrhea as a result of contraception), sterility natural(caused by normal physiological reasons: age, pregnancy, breastfeeding, etc.), artificial(contraceptive), etc.

Infertility- absence of births. It may be a consequence artificial termination of pregnancy, as well as a complete absence of sexual relations ( withdrawal symptoms) throughout the entire reproductive period or some part of it (due to lack of marriage, prolonged separation of spouses or contraceptive abstinence).

Fertility cannot be measured directly. It can be assessed either by measuring fertility (the physiological ability to conceive, which is approximately equal to 0.2), or by conditionally taking the level of natural fertility as it.

Under natural fertility understand marital fertility in the absence of any direct interference in the reproductive cycle. Natural fertility is biologically and socially determined. Its value varies depending on the average age at marriage, duration of breastfeeding and other behavioral factors. In developed countries, small families prevail, with the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime not exceeding 1.5. This gap is explained by the effect of reproductive behavior, the incomplete realization of the need for two children, which prevails in most families in developed countries.

NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH RATIO, the ratio of natural population growth to the average population. for certain time period (t) ΔP/ . At t = T, where T is the length of the period in years, the annual K. e.p.n. equals

k = ΔP ect /T.

If t→ 0, then ΔP(t)/t→ P"(t), and k→ P"(t)/P(t), i.e. to the logarithmic derivative of the number. us (the so-called instantaneous K. e. p. n. K. e. p. n. can also be obtained as the difference between the birth rate and death rate. It can be positive, negative and equal to zero (growth, reduction or the invariability of the number of people as a result of various combinations of birth rate and mortality). up to 30-35 o /oo Negative values ​​of the coefficient are relatively rare and are associated, as a rule, with violations of the age structure of us.

• - gross population reproduction rate, an indicator of generation replacement that does not take into account mortality; one of the general characteristics of the population reproduction regime and a summary characteristic of fertility...
• - the ratio of total population growth per definition. period of time to the average us. over the same period...

  Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary

• - an indicator of the contribution of the components of reproduction of us. into the future growth of us. during the period of its stabilization. Defined as the ratio of numbers. theoretical...

  Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary

• - the ratio of the average value to the smallest KEO value within the characteristic section of the room. Source: "House: Construction Terminology", M.: Buk-press, 2006...

  Construction dictionary

• - see Natural selection...

  Ecological dictionary

• - English reproduction rate, gross; German Brutto-Koeffizient der Bevolkerungs-reproduction. The indicator of gross population reproduction is the average number of girls born to a woman over the entire reproductive period...

  Encyclopedia of Sociology

• - see NATURAL SELECTION...

  Encyclopedia of Sociology

• - the number of daughters per woman under given conditions of fertility and mortality...

  Large economic dictionary

• - a room without openable windows or openings in external walls or a room with openable windows located at a distance exceeding five times the height of the room...

  Construction dictionary

• - rooms in which the coefficient of natural illumination at the standardization point is below 0.1. Source: "House: Construction Terminology", M.: Buk-press, 2006...

  Construction dictionary

• - where m2 is the second sample moment, x is the sample average. Characterizes the variability of the trait being studied. Widely used in assessing errors in mineral reserve estimates...

  Geological encyclopedia

• - Statistics of the population of a country or region, including statistics on fertility, mortality, marriages and...

  Dictionary of business terms

• - The number of female children in the population divided by the number of adult women in the previous generation. The figure thus obtained is a good guide to future population trends...

  Dictionary of business terms

• - "... - the ratio of the average value to the smallest value of KEO within the characteristic section of the room..." Source: DECISION of the Moscow Government dated March 23...

  Official terminology

• - "...: a room that does not have windows or light openings in the external enclosing building structures..." Source: "SP 7.13130.2009. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning...

  Official terminology

• - "... - premises in which the coefficient of natural illumination at the standardization point is below 0.1..." Source: DECISION of the Moscow Government dated March 23...

  Official terminology

"NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE" in books

Appendix No. 4. Agreement reached by the military government with representatives of the congress of the non-Cossack population of the Donskoy Army Region on the issue of the grounds for the entry of representatives of the non-Cossack population into the members of the military government